Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.149603 0.177044 0.209270 0.250219 0.301306 0.363522 4.459157e-01
2025-07-27 0.121287 0.156573 0.202745 0.268783 0.362819 0.495105 7.012370e-01
2025-08-03 0.099338 0.138019 0.193581 0.281940 0.424321 0.655039 1.080687e+00
2025-08-10 0.079823 0.118032 0.177508 0.281486 0.469410 0.818764 1.585714e+00
2025-08-17 0.063609 0.099149 0.158430 0.271143 0.497509 0.977649 2.235999e+00
2025-08-24 0.053941 0.088524 0.150302 0.278271 0.565585 1.270656 3.547815e+00
2025-08-31 0.046196 0.079429 0.142647 0.284625 0.640095 1.653033 5.771947e+00
2025-09-07 0.040174 0.072113 0.136555 0.292991 0.729586 2.184331 9.867196e+00
2025-09-14 0.035232 0.065776 0.130855 0.300937 0.829030 2.897293 1.758136e+01
2025-09-21 0.030357 0.058529 0.121325 0.296033 0.891559 3.597703 2.952480e+01
2025-09-28 0.024471 0.048009 0.101780 0.256653 0.813244 3.573711 3.558335e+01
2025-10-05 0.021965 0.044399 0.097880 0.261603 0.908879 4.691826 6.964482e+01
2025-10-12 0.020037 0.041864 0.096439 0.275579 1.068346 6.760569 1.797212e+02
2025-10-19 0.018414 0.039721 0.095533 0.291948 1.268872 10.083120 5.903069e+02
2025-10-26 0.016793 0.037257 0.093129 0.302625 1.466064 14.700436 2.403093e+03
2025-11-02 0.015000 0.034012 0.087617 0.298995 1.583938 19.495810 1.060038e+04
2025-11-09 0.013235 0.030515 0.080475 0.285437 1.625751 23.862644 5.368702e+04
2025-11-16 0.012145 0.028623 0.077872 0.290979 1.832619 34.910190 3.277914e+06
2025-11-23 0.011177 0.026890 0.075340 0.295973 2.059676 51.912283 NaN
2025-11-30 0.010364 0.025443 0.073396 0.303295 2.342219 81.149132 NaN
2025-12-07 0.009638 0.024113 0.071518 0.310356 2.659622 130.652997 NaN
2025-12-14 0.008812 0.022351 0.067641 0.304282 2.821198 184.910426 NaN
2025-12-21 0.007624 0.019332 0.058483 0.262910 2.434052 158.651952 NaN